The RBA has made its move, and the 2026 outlook is becoming clear. Here is exactly what you need to know:

• The Rate Hike: The cash rate just hit 4.10% (March 17). This second consecutive rise is the RBA’s response to persistent inflation and “capacity pressures” in the economy.
• The Jobs Safety Net: Unemployment rose slightly to 4.3%, but don’t let that fool you. It was driven by more people entering the workforce (higher participation), not a lack of jobs. A strong labor market remains our “buffer.”
• The Property Split: We aren’t seeing a single “national” market. While Sydney and Melbourne are flattening, Perth (+2.3%) and Brisbane (+1.6%) are still recording monthly gains.
• What’s Next? Markets are already pricing in a potential peak of 4.35% by May.

The FinSelect Take: In 2026, “Higher for Longer” is the new reality. Success this year isn’t about finding the lowest rate; it’s about having a repayment strategy that survives the cycle.

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